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Experts weigh in on market in Phoenix

Catherine Reagor
On real estate
Nov. 5, 2006 12:00 AM

The housing market's wild ride during the past few years has caught the attention of a lot more "watchers," or analysts.

The number of local and national real estate gurus tracking the Valley's housing market has grown with the amount of money made and lost in the industry recently.

Here's a sampling of some of the pundits' opinions and research:

  • The number of Valley homes for sale, or listings, has dropped to its lowest level since the end of August. There were 53,509 listings on Nov. 1. That figure breaks down to 12 homes for every home buyer in the market now, according to research from Jay Haugen of Re/Max Anasazi Realty. At the end of September, the number of homes for sale was hovering near an all-time high of about 55,300.
  • Pinal County has been the hot spot for home-building in the Valley this year. Through September, 13,000 houses were started in the southeastern Valley suburb, according to Metrostudy. But resales in Pinal fell to 850 during the third quarter, according to the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University's Polytechnic. More than 1,100 existing homes changed hands in the area during both the first and second quarters of 2006.
  • More than 4,500 new homes, complete or nearly finished, sit unsold in Valley subdivisions, Belfiore Real Estate Consulting says.
  • Demand for unreasonably priced homes or homes far from jobs is "abysmal" now. That's what national real estate analyst John Burns writes in his recent newsletter. "This is particularly evident in markets like Phoenix and Washington, D.C., where the economies are booming, yet net prices are down 15 percent or more in the outlying areas," he wrote.
  • Metro Phoenix has a 35 percent chance of falling home prices, according to PMI's U.S. Market Risk Index. But 24 other areas, including Las Vegas and San Diego, have a greater chance that their prices will drop.
  • Well-known Arizona housing analyst RL Brown still has a "code red" on his monthly report and says, "The end (of the housing market's slowdown) is not yet in sight, and the market is still seeking the bottom."

High-rise changes hands

One of the planned condominium towers on Phoenix's Central Avenue appears to be off the drawing board.

Office-condo builder Shea Commercial bought the 3030 N. Central Ave. office building early this year with plans to turn it into a residential high-rise, right along the light-rail line.

Last week, Shea sold the high-rise to NBS, an Oregon developer, for $26 million. Shea paid $19.5 million for it in February. No word on NBS' plans yet.

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